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Future of AI

Where is AI Going?

The future of AI is hard to predict. One need only to look at past predictions to see that. In the mid 1950s, the founders of AI had hoped to make significant strides toward solving the problem of intelligence in a single summer.

Artificial General Intelligence?​

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) or “Strong AI” refers to something closer to human intelligence. It would be the ability for a machine to handle any cognitive or learning task at human or superhuman levels, without focusing on a narrow learning task. We do not yet have this level of AI, and experts disagree on the prospects of if and when it might arrive. (A 2012-13 survey of experts gave it a 50% chance of arriving by 2050, and 90% by 2075.)

Superintelligence?​

Meanwhile, beyond General AI, the concept of “Artificial Super Intelligence” is the stuff of movies at this point. It would not only require that General AI be achieved, but also that AI systems surpass human-level intelligence in every area including simple things like how to tie a shoe, which it has not yet mastered.

Applications​

A Utility​

Some regard AI to be a general platform technology, much like electricity, describing it as “a basic fact of our lives, an invention like money or democracy,” such that it will be used in and transform nearly every societal context. While AI is often not as tangible as cash or as visible as electricity, this prediction about AI is probably not far off. For that reason, it may create societal upheaval for years or decades to come before settling into the fabric of society. It will take time for AI’s role and ripple effects to reach a new equilibrium within the systems that structure society.

Language Translation​

In our previous Trend report written in 2020, we predicted that “AI systems will likely become widely used in language translation within the next 3-5 years.” In January 2024, Samsung introduced AI-powered translation features for its newest smartphones, including a Live Translation feature that allows real-time translation during phone calls, both audibly and on-screen, for up to 13 languages.

Workforce​

AI is more likely to take people’s tasks than their jobs. AI is likely to automate aspects of many kinds of jobs as it is integrated into the workforce. The benefits and consequences will not be evenly distributed, and will press Christians to continue to work for justice on behalf of marginalized people.

Healthcare, Physical and Spiritual​

The 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded for AlphaFold, an AI algorithm used for predicting and designing novel proteins using AI. With AlphaFold, researchers can accelerate the discovery of new medicines.

AI systems have already been used extensively in healthcare contexts, including alerting people at risk of suicide, as well as their friends. Similar systems could eventually extend to spiritual health tracking as well, according to Nathan Matias. Groups like Tether and Cherith are seeking to develop discipleship apps with similar goals.

Governance & Policy​

Governments are slowly beginning to propose legislation, but are even slower to fully bake it into law (Stanford 2022 AI Index Report, ch 5, p 7). Bad actors will continue to proliferate until legislation steps in. Nonetheless, regulatory frameworks are developing. Among them:

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For more from Christian organizations, see our Resources section.

Environment​

AI systems, like generative models, are highly energy-intensive. They have significant environmental impacts that are often invisible to users. For example:

  • Training GPT-3 used around 500 metric tons of CO2, equivalent to 600 flights between London and New York
  • GPT-4 consumed a staggering 13,000 metric tons
  • Everyday AI interactions, such as using ChatGPT, can consume 3 to 30 times more electricity than a previous Google search did
  • Many lead to follow-up questions that further increase AI energy usage

Christian stewardship calls for conscientious management of these impacts, beyond legal minimums, to reflect our responsibility for creation care. How might AI developers, especially within Christian organizations, make energy consumption and environmental costs transparent to users? Energy transparency would empower users to make informed decisions and choose to reduce their carbon footprint. Smaller, more efficient AI models should also be prioritized, and where larger systems are necessary, their benefits must be clearly justified.